Via Horace Dediu on asymco:
Post PC does not mean the end of the microcomputer. The way to think about it
is this: The stone age did not end because we stopped using stones. Same with
the iron age and the industrial era. The era of jet travel did not end
automobile or even ship travel (though that changed to recreation rather than
transportation for passengers.) Each phase of technology does not fully
replace its predecessor.
There’s a lot of BS floating around from Apple fanbois and haters. Depending on
the hyped headline of the day, either the iPad is going to become an
übermonopoly or the next cool device around the corner is an “iPad killer”. I’m
very refreshed by Horace Dediu’s level headed and data-focused analysis. You’d
do well to follow him. He has good insights into the future of mobile tech and
how Apple fits into it. He’s not a headline whore, he backs up his reasoning
with hard numbers, and offers astutely educated guesses when appropriate.
For developers, this is where I think he’s spot on:
The way to think about apps is as a new medium, similar to the emergence of
radio, television, cinema and even books. The app is a new art form as well
as something that provides functional value.